African Maths Initiative

Sharing Initiatives in Maths Education


The Seasonal Forecast by Stephen Kiplimo Kogo.

Seasonal forecasting is one of the major tasks performed by National Meteorological Services in different countries. They are able to do this with the help of historical records of rainfall, temperature or humidity among others and the sea surface temperatures. Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) software is used to conduct the forecasting upon receiving appropriate data inputs. Different statistical methods are employed in CPT which include canonical correlation analysis and principal component regression. These methods facilitate the creation of model(s) to be used in forecasting and proper understanding on how they do them is key in evaluating the usefulness of the resulting forecast. Usually the forecast is of the 3-month rainfall totals, but here we also consider forecasting the number of rain days and the occurrence of cold (rain-bearing) clouds

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